New blog

Well, I've created a blog on my website, EastTennesseeWeather.com. So, this one will no longer have any new posts or anything on it and after a while, I'll delete it.

Snow Possile on Wed/Thu

GFS shows the potential for snow on Wednesday and ESPECIALLY Thursday. For Wednesday, I wouldn't count on getting much snow, if any, in the lower elevations. But for Thursday, as of right now, it looks pretty likely that it'll snow all around the region.

Stay tuned...

Chance of Snow for Late Friday/Early Saturday

As of right now, it looks like we could see some snow in the mountains and maybe even in the valleys come late Friday night and early Saturday morning. I really haven't looked to see if it can carry into the morning or afternoon but I highly doubt it. But then again, I'm no meteorologist. I'm not sure if there will be any accumulation in the valleys but I do believe there may be some in the mountains.

Finally, another post

Apparently I had completely forgotten that I had a blog until the other day when I just magically remembered. So since I realized I have one, I figured I'd make a post just so I can say the blog is still alive.

Nothing much to discuss weather-wise. According to MRX, for Kingsport, it'll be pretty nice until Tuesday evening. Sunday and Monday have predicted highs in the low 70s. ut then it looks like it'll start raining Tuesday night and at least continue into Wednesday.

Scattered T-Storms on Sunday followed by Snow?!?!

With the NWS calling for a chance of scattered t-storms on Sunday, it is hard to believe it could be snowing again come Monday night and into Tuesday. But, surely enough, that's what the forecast is. Sunday, I think the Tri-Cities will mainly just see rain, but you cannot rule out a rumble or two of thunder or high winds as well. Then into Sunday night, I don't think we'll get any snow, maybe a flurry but I think you should be considered lucky if you even see a single flake stick to the ground.

The latest NAM shows no precipitation on Sunday at all but it does show that some rain/snow will begin to move into the area on Monday evening. Although most of the precipitation we see will be rain, some of it may turn into snow. Light rain/snow will may continue into Tuesday. During all of this, we will be under quite a trough and things could get pretty windy at times.

GFS essentially says the same thing, however, it does show up to half an inch of rain when the system first starts to go through, before it turns to snow.
===================================================================
FROM MRX

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers after 2pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 74. Calm wind becoming south between 10 and 15 mph. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. South wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Monday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49. Breezy, with a west wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday Night: A chance of rain showers before 2am, then a chance of snow showers. Cloudy and breezy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday: A chance of snow showers before 10am, then a chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night: A slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 52.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 38.
---------------------------------------------------
00
FLUS44 KMRX 040840
HWOMRX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
440 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2009

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-050845-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
440 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2009 /340 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS IS
VERY MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

COLDER AIR AND LINGERING MOISTURE ON MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY...
MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$$

Severe Weather Threat for the Remainder of the Week

It looks like we could be seeing some thunder and possibly some severe storms here in Tennessee over the next few days.

EWALL's GFS models says that a storm system will form in the ArkLaTex region and rise northwards, forming quite a squal line for Middle and Eastern TN. I

Thursday, I am supposed to commute down to Morristown to attend a SKYWARN class. Hopefully, it won't get canceled due to severe weather! How ironic...

Severe Weather in the Forecast?

Looks like there may be a chance of some thunderstorms in the forecast. Take a look at this convective outlook. Although East Tennessee isn't even in the marked area for day 5, I still wouldn't say that we won't get anything because this thing is still a little far out. So, until it is about two days out, I really won't pay much attention to it.

Wow. We probably have about an inch of snow! Last night, a cell moved over top of us and dropped all of this snow in 10-15 minutes I think. It was coming down incredibly hard and fast. Both MRX and local weathermen were forecasting 1-3 inches for the valleys and I figured they were all crazy! But then came this little cell which, to me, didn't look all that promising. But surely enough, it came and boy did it conquer.

Visibility went out the door and I don't see how anyone could have drove more than 2 mph during the snow. I listened to the police radio and it sounded like the city and county didn't salt as the usually do for some reason. Every time this season that there has been a threat of snow or ice, the county has always salted our road but I don't think they did yesterday. So, snow was causing utter chaos as it actually accumulated on the roads.

Heck, it's a given that Sullivan County Schools were going to be out but even KINGSPORT CITY was closed as well and that never happens!

!!!Photos and Videos to Come!!!


This is the short term forecast from MRX as of now;

000
FPUS74 KMRX 041111
NOWMRX

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
611 AM EST WED FEB 4 2009

TNZ015>018-042>047-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-041315-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-LEE-WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...
BRISTOL...MOUNTAIN CITY...GREENEVILLE...CEDAR CREEK...
JOHNSON CITY...ERWIN...ELIZABETHTON...ROAN MOUNTAIN...
JONESVILLE...WISE...NORTON...GATE CITY...LEBANON...ABINGDON
611 AM EST WED FEB 4 2009

.NOW...
THROUGH 8 AM EST...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST...ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHEAST TN. MOST AREAS WILL
SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. NORTHWEST FACING SLOPE CAN EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES NEAR ONE
INCH PER HOUR.

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO 5 TO 12 DEGREES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIND CHILL READINGS BELOW ZERO.


This is the long term forecast from MRX as of now;

TNZ017-044-046-VAZ005-042130-
SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON TN-NORTHWEST CARTER-SCOTT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KINGSPORT...BRISTOL...JOHNSON CITY...
ELIZABETHTON...GATE CITY
415 AM EST WED FEB 4 2009

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

.TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY
IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 4 INCHES. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION 2 TO 7 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. WIND
CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY
MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
MORNING. LOWS 6 TO 9. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW
40 PERCENT. WIND CHILL READINGS 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO.
.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. LIGHT
WINDS.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 18. LIGHT WINDS.
.FRIDAY...SUNNY. NOT AS COOL. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT
WINDS.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.

Snow

Well, it looks like we got a nice little snow yesterday. It was just enough to coat the ground but the grass still pops through it. I've heard that we may see an inch of snow this evening and tonight but I wouldn't necessarily count on it although both the weathermen and the NWS are certain that will occur. It certainly would be nice!

I have some photos of the snow that I'll try to upload this evening.

By the way, I think there is a 50% Chance of Sullivan County Schools Being Closed Tomorrow as of 1:10 pm Tuesday.

Here is a link to my forecast map for Monday's snow. I have no clue if Sullivan County will get out or not but I'll make a prediction for Sullivan Co. Schools later this evening.

Click on the thumbnail below to see a larger image.


GO STEELERS!!!

To snow or not to snow...

Right now, it seems that everything has gone up in the air (no pun intended). Models have dramatically weakened the system which would pass through Tennessee. Everything is going to depend on the flow of Gulf moisture to the area. Now, although it may be very wrong, here is my perspective on the whole deal. If we get too much Gulf air (warm, moist) it will push out the cold, necessary-for-snow cold temperatures and thus we will get rain. On the other hand, if get too little of the Gulf air, we won't have the moisture for a great deal of snow BUT the temperatures will cold enough for some snow.

Another one of my concerns is how cold the ground will be. Sunday's high is 56 F. That is AWFULLY warm. If that occurs, I just don't think the ground will get cold enough for the snow to stick before the snow, which is anticipated to fall early Monday morning.

There is a chance of snow both on Tuesday and Wednessday but I really haven't looked at that much yet.

Stay tuned...

No chance of snow tonight...

I would say that there is practically no chance of snow tonight for the Kingsport area. However, it will be somewhat colder tomorrow than today. Take a look at the following GFS model. See what I mean?



And even if there was snow, it wouldn't accumulate at all. Sorry, try again next week!


Here is the forecast for the NWS for Colonial Heights as of 3:15 pm.

This Afternoon: Sunny, with a high near 42. West wind around 5 mph.

Tonight: Increasing clouds, with a low around 24. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Breezy, with a west wind between 10 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. West wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 44. West wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 23.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 49.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.

Monday: Rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Monday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday: A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29.

Tuesday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 33.

Looks like rain...

Rain will fill our forecast for this week. There IS a slight possibility of snow very late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning...don't hold your breath though. There may be some snow of Friday but I still wouldn't even think about it. That is still a little far out.

Possibility of Sullivan County getting out anytime this week: Virtually none

Here is your NWS forecast as of 5:00pm for Colonial Heights.

Tonight: A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Calm wind.

Tuesday: Rain. High near 46. Calm wind becoming south between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Tuesday Night: Rain. Low around 41. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming southwest. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Wednesday: Rain, mainly before 1pm. High near 45. West wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Wednesday Night: A chance of rain showers before midnight, then a chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 46.

Thursday Night: A slight chance of rain showers before midnight, then a slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday: A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 40.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 23.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 45.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Monday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49.

A break from coldness and snow

It appears that we will be experiencing warmer temps for a few days at least. Some of these temps may even reach into the lower to mid 50s. A heat wave, I know.

Looks like school won't be out or delayed again for a good while.

Ahhhh! I'm melting...

It looks like a lot of the snow has melted in the lower elevations. However, the story is different in the higher altitudes. However, you don't have to go very far up before you begin to see more snow remaining on the ground. Also, it doesn't take long before you notice that the roads get more slick and icy. Tonight, some of the water on the roads may freeze as temps go below freezing. This may cause some delays for Sullivan County tomorrow but I wouldn't expect any closures.

CORRECTION: SULLIVAN COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED ON TUESDAY.

Snow!!!

We have snow!! The grass is pretty much covered up. It looks like we could keep getting snow until this evening as another system may pass through after this one leaves. But it looks like it is weaker than the system we are under right now and it may not get any bigger.

Photos and videos to come!!

CORRECTION: The grass in my neighbor's yard is not covered completely because they never did mow it. = )

Temps are off again...

It looks like my temps were too low for yesterday and today as well. It is reported it got up to 46 F yesterday. Today it may be a little bit warmer. I'll try to update my forecast this evening.

Mid-day Forecast for 1/11/2008

Although the precipitation has pretty much came to a halt, there still may be an occasion drizzle of rain or, yes, flurry of snow all day Sunday and into Monday morning.

FORECAST:

Today
Mostly cloudy and overcast. Little to no wind.

High: 37

Low: 27


Monday
Partly to Mostly Cloudy.

High: 35

Low: 22


Tuesday
40% Chance of Snow after noon. Small amounts of accumulation may occur. Winds may be gusty and breezy, lowering the wind chill.

High: 33

Low: 20

Snow possible but with little to no accumulation...

There is a chance of some light snow and flurries later in the day today but there will be very little to no accumulation of it. But, I have my eye on a possible snow situation for next week!

A break from forecasting...

It's been a good while since I've posted a forecast and I plan to make one tonight and continue to make one every night for at least the next day. I'll make sure I try not to view any forecasts until I have made mine official as to not taint it. Then, I will look up the NWS forecast and post it after mine as a comparison. That will followed by some moaning and groaning over how my forecast is way different from theirs.