Right now, it seems that everything has gone up in the air (no pun intended). Models have dramatically weakened the system which would pass through Tennessee. Everything is going to depend on the flow of Gulf moisture to the area. Now, although it may be very wrong, here is my perspective on the whole deal. If we get too much Gulf air (warm, moist) it will push out the cold, necessary-for-snow cold temperatures and thus we will get rain. On the other hand, if get too little of the Gulf air, we won't have the moisture for a great deal of snow BUT the temperatures will cold enough for some snow.
Another one of my concerns is how cold the ground will be. Sunday's high is 56 F. That is AWFULLY warm. If that occurs, I just don't think the ground will get cold enough for the snow to stick before the snow, which is anticipated to fall early Monday morning.
There is a chance of snow both on Tuesday and Wednessday but I really haven't looked at that much yet.
Stay tuned...
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Thursday, January 29, 2009
No chance of snow tonight...
I would say that there is practically no chance of snow tonight for the Kingsport area. However, it will be somewhat colder tomorrow than today. Take a look at the following GFS model. See what I mean?
And even if there was snow, it wouldn't accumulate at all. Sorry, try again next week!
Here is the forecast for the NWS for Colonial Heights as of 3:15 pm.
This Afternoon: Sunny, with a high near 42. West wind around 5 mph.
Tonight: Increasing clouds, with a low around 24. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph.
Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Breezy, with a west wind between 10 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. West wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 44. West wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 23.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 49.
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.
Monday: Rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Monday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Tuesday: A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29.
Tuesday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 33.
And even if there was snow, it wouldn't accumulate at all. Sorry, try again next week!
Here is the forecast for the NWS for Colonial Heights as of 3:15 pm.
This Afternoon: Sunny, with a high near 42. West wind around 5 mph.
Tonight: Increasing clouds, with a low around 24. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph.
Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Breezy, with a west wind between 10 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. West wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 44. West wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 23.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 49.
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.
Monday: Rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Monday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Tuesday: A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29.
Tuesday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 33.
Monday, January 26, 2009
Looks like rain...
Rain will fill our forecast for this week. There IS a slight possibility of snow very late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning...don't hold your breath though. There may be some snow of Friday but I still wouldn't even think about it. That is still a little far out.
Possibility of Sullivan County getting out anytime this week: Virtually none
Here is your NWS forecast as of 5:00pm for Colonial Heights.
Tonight: A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Calm wind.
Tuesday: Rain. High near 46. Calm wind becoming south between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Tuesday Night: Rain. Low around 41. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming southwest. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Wednesday: Rain, mainly before 1pm. High near 45. West wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Wednesday Night: A chance of rain showers before midnight, then a chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 46.
Thursday Night: A slight chance of rain showers before midnight, then a slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Friday: A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 40.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 23.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 45.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.
Monday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49.
Possibility of Sullivan County getting out anytime this week: Virtually none
Here is your NWS forecast as of 5:00pm for Colonial Heights.
Tonight: A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Calm wind.
Tuesday: Rain. High near 46. Calm wind becoming south between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Tuesday Night: Rain. Low around 41. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming southwest. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Wednesday: Rain, mainly before 1pm. High near 45. West wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Wednesday Night: A chance of rain showers before midnight, then a chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 46.
Thursday Night: A slight chance of rain showers before midnight, then a slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Friday: A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 40.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 23.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 45.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.
Monday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49.
Thursday, January 22, 2009
A break from coldness and snow
It appears that we will be experiencing warmer temps for a few days at least. Some of these temps may even reach into the lower to mid 50s. A heat wave, I know.
Looks like school won't be out or delayed again for a good while.
Looks like school won't be out or delayed again for a good while.
Monday, January 19, 2009
Ahhhh! I'm melting...
It looks like a lot of the snow has melted in the lower elevations. However, the story is different in the higher altitudes. However, you don't have to go very far up before you begin to see more snow remaining on the ground. Also, it doesn't take long before you notice that the roads get more slick and icy. Tonight, some of the water on the roads may freeze as temps go below freezing. This may cause some delays for Sullivan County tomorrow but I wouldn't expect any closures.
CORRECTION: SULLIVAN COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED ON TUESDAY.
CORRECTION: SULLIVAN COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED ON TUESDAY.
Snow!!!
We have snow!! The grass is pretty much covered up. It looks like we could keep getting snow until this evening as another system may pass through after this one leaves. But it looks like it is weaker than the system we are under right now and it may not get any bigger.
Photos and videos to come!!
CORRECTION: The grass in my neighbor's yard is not covered completely because they never did mow it. = )
Photos and videos to come!!
CORRECTION: The grass in my neighbor's yard is not covered completely because they never did mow it. = )
Monday, January 12, 2009
Temps are off again...
It looks like my temps were too low for yesterday and today as well. It is reported it got up to 46 F yesterday. Today it may be a little bit warmer. I'll try to update my forecast this evening.
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Mid-day Forecast for 1/11/2008
Although the precipitation has pretty much came to a halt, there still may be an occasion drizzle of rain or, yes, flurry of snow all day Sunday and into Monday morning.
FORECAST:
Today
Mostly cloudy and overcast. Little to no wind.
High: 37
Low: 27
Monday
Partly to Mostly Cloudy.
High: 35
Low: 22
Tuesday
40% Chance of Snow after noon. Small amounts of accumulation may occur. Winds may be gusty and breezy, lowering the wind chill.
High: 33
Low: 20
FORECAST:
Today
Mostly cloudy and overcast. Little to no wind.
High: 37
Low: 27
Monday
Partly to Mostly Cloudy.
High: 35
Low: 22
Tuesday
40% Chance of Snow after noon. Small amounts of accumulation may occur. Winds may be gusty and breezy, lowering the wind chill.
High: 33
Low: 20
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Snow possible but with little to no accumulation...
There is a chance of some light snow and flurries later in the day today but there will be very little to no accumulation of it. But, I have my eye on a possible snow situation for next week!
Monday, January 5, 2009
A break from forecasting...
It's been a good while since I've posted a forecast and I plan to make one tonight and continue to make one every night for at least the next day. I'll make sure I try not to view any forecasts until I have made mine official as to not taint it. Then, I will look up the NWS forecast and post it after mine as a comparison. That will followed by some moaning and groaning over how my forecast is way different from theirs.
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