Severe Weather in the Forecast?

Looks like there may be a chance of some thunderstorms in the forecast. Take a look at this convective outlook. Although East Tennessee isn't even in the marked area for day 5, I still wouldn't say that we won't get anything because this thing is still a little far out. So, until it is about two days out, I really won't pay much attention to it.

Wow. We probably have about an inch of snow! Last night, a cell moved over top of us and dropped all of this snow in 10-15 minutes I think. It was coming down incredibly hard and fast. Both MRX and local weathermen were forecasting 1-3 inches for the valleys and I figured they were all crazy! But then came this little cell which, to me, didn't look all that promising. But surely enough, it came and boy did it conquer.

Visibility went out the door and I don't see how anyone could have drove more than 2 mph during the snow. I listened to the police radio and it sounded like the city and county didn't salt as the usually do for some reason. Every time this season that there has been a threat of snow or ice, the county has always salted our road but I don't think they did yesterday. So, snow was causing utter chaos as it actually accumulated on the roads.

Heck, it's a given that Sullivan County Schools were going to be out but even KINGSPORT CITY was closed as well and that never happens!

!!!Photos and Videos to Come!!!


This is the short term forecast from MRX as of now;

000
FPUS74 KMRX 041111
NOWMRX

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
611 AM EST WED FEB 4 2009

TNZ015>018-042>047-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-041315-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-LEE-WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...
BRISTOL...MOUNTAIN CITY...GREENEVILLE...CEDAR CREEK...
JOHNSON CITY...ERWIN...ELIZABETHTON...ROAN MOUNTAIN...
JONESVILLE...WISE...NORTON...GATE CITY...LEBANON...ABINGDON
611 AM EST WED FEB 4 2009

.NOW...
THROUGH 8 AM EST...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST...ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHEAST TN. MOST AREAS WILL
SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. NORTHWEST FACING SLOPE CAN EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES NEAR ONE
INCH PER HOUR.

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO 5 TO 12 DEGREES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIND CHILL READINGS BELOW ZERO.


This is the long term forecast from MRX as of now;

TNZ017-044-046-VAZ005-042130-
SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON TN-NORTHWEST CARTER-SCOTT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KINGSPORT...BRISTOL...JOHNSON CITY...
ELIZABETHTON...GATE CITY
415 AM EST WED FEB 4 2009

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

.TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY
IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 4 INCHES. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION 2 TO 7 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. WIND
CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY
MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
MORNING. LOWS 6 TO 9. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW
40 PERCENT. WIND CHILL READINGS 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO.
.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. LIGHT
WINDS.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 18. LIGHT WINDS.
.FRIDAY...SUNNY. NOT AS COOL. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT
WINDS.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.

Snow

Well, it looks like we got a nice little snow yesterday. It was just enough to coat the ground but the grass still pops through it. I've heard that we may see an inch of snow this evening and tonight but I wouldn't necessarily count on it although both the weathermen and the NWS are certain that will occur. It certainly would be nice!

I have some photos of the snow that I'll try to upload this evening.

By the way, I think there is a 50% Chance of Sullivan County Schools Being Closed Tomorrow as of 1:10 pm Tuesday.

Here is a link to my forecast map for Monday's snow. I have no clue if Sullivan County will get out or not but I'll make a prediction for Sullivan Co. Schools later this evening.

Click on the thumbnail below to see a larger image.


GO STEELERS!!!

To snow or not to snow...

Right now, it seems that everything has gone up in the air (no pun intended). Models have dramatically weakened the system which would pass through Tennessee. Everything is going to depend on the flow of Gulf moisture to the area. Now, although it may be very wrong, here is my perspective on the whole deal. If we get too much Gulf air (warm, moist) it will push out the cold, necessary-for-snow cold temperatures and thus we will get rain. On the other hand, if get too little of the Gulf air, we won't have the moisture for a great deal of snow BUT the temperatures will cold enough for some snow.

Another one of my concerns is how cold the ground will be. Sunday's high is 56 F. That is AWFULLY warm. If that occurs, I just don't think the ground will get cold enough for the snow to stick before the snow, which is anticipated to fall early Monday morning.

There is a chance of snow both on Tuesday and Wednessday but I really haven't looked at that much yet.

Stay tuned...

No chance of snow tonight...

I would say that there is practically no chance of snow tonight for the Kingsport area. However, it will be somewhat colder tomorrow than today. Take a look at the following GFS model. See what I mean?



And even if there was snow, it wouldn't accumulate at all. Sorry, try again next week!


Here is the forecast for the NWS for Colonial Heights as of 3:15 pm.

This Afternoon: Sunny, with a high near 42. West wind around 5 mph.

Tonight: Increasing clouds, with a low around 24. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Breezy, with a west wind between 10 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. West wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 44. West wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 23.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 49.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.

Monday: Rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Monday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday: A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29.

Tuesday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 33.

Looks like rain...

Rain will fill our forecast for this week. There IS a slight possibility of snow very late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning...don't hold your breath though. There may be some snow of Friday but I still wouldn't even think about it. That is still a little far out.

Possibility of Sullivan County getting out anytime this week: Virtually none

Here is your NWS forecast as of 5:00pm for Colonial Heights.

Tonight: A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Calm wind.

Tuesday: Rain. High near 46. Calm wind becoming south between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Tuesday Night: Rain. Low around 41. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming southwest. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Wednesday: Rain, mainly before 1pm. High near 45. West wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Wednesday Night: A chance of rain showers before midnight, then a chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 46.

Thursday Night: A slight chance of rain showers before midnight, then a slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday: A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 40.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 23.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 45.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Monday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49.